Market Overview February 2024

Highlights

• BTC ETFs are approved
• Hedge funds are frontrunning the ETF news & halving narrative

Market Overview January 2024

Highlights

• Solana ecosystem outperforms everything by a large margin (Bonk pumps, meme coins drive retail interest)
• Bitcoin ecosystem growth (we believe usage of Bitcoin L2s and atomic swap exchanges will increase)
• The Bitcoin ETF will likely be approved in early January (a sell-the-news event?)

Market Overview December 2023

Highlights

• CZ pleads guilty, Binance charged with 4.3B
• Bitcoin hits 40k (although without natural demand)

Market Overview November 2023

Highlights

• Fake ETF news causing 60m+ in liquidations
• Bitcoin pumps 30% fueled by shorts and artificial demand
• SBF was found guilty on all seven charges

Market Overview October 2023

Highlights

• None

Market Overview September 2023

Highlights

Github Discovery

Introducing a method to discover actively developed projects on Github.

Listings

The following list is used to check for new listings. T2 exchange listings are a good indicator for active development.

Useful Macro Blogs

A list of useful macro blogs.

Trading Insights

Over the past years of observing crypto markets, we came to various conclusions about cycles, money flows, risk and others.

Reserach Questions

When researching a project, the following questions provide a good guideline for evaluation.

Research Methods

Research is done by following these approaches to find alpha systematically.

Trade 1 - Buying Bitcoin

Idea

Outline of the trade idea.

Exchanges

It is useful to monitor currently listed tokens (via CMC) on exchanges. It’s a good alpha method to find tokens that are undervalued compared to the market average.

Useful Crypto Blogs

A list of useful crypto blogs.

Trading Plan

1. All trades must have a written hypothesis
2. 80% of trades should be hedged as pair trade
3. Enter/exit in 5 batches (spanning multiple days or weeks)
4. Expect 30% of trades to go to 0 (due to hacks & scams)
5. All trades must be analyzed post-exit
6. Trade slowly (cycles provide 3-6 months to enter/exit)

Trade 0 - Trade Template

Idea

Outline of the trade idea.

Risk Management

Our guidelines for managing risk:

1. Max. investment of 5% per project
2. Max. unhedged exposure of 20% either side
3. Manually exiting upon invalidation
4. Max. 2x leverage (usually less!)
5. Max. 20% of capital on a single exchange
6. Max. 10% of time in the market (at 100% capital)