Over the past years of observing crypto markets, we came to various conclusions about cycles, money flows, risk and others.

  • Understanding money/active user flow is key (not volume, not price, but money in/out)
  • Crypto is pumped by a small number of hedge funds with borrowed capital
  • Usually new cycles start after 1-2 years of total silence (when everyone forgets about crypto)
  • Highly negative/positive funding rates might cause short-term liquidity hunts
  • Bull markets need a narrative. 2017 it was ICOs, 2021 it was NFTs/M2 money supply growth
  • Money flows from BTC to ETH to large caps to memes/low caps
  • There is no over or under valued for crypto tokens because most tokens are based on hype
  • Buying a random meme at the right time > buying a token with strong fundamentals at the wrong time
  • Holding tokens for the long-term is a bad strategy, except for a handful few (BTC, etc.)
  • New exciting technologies (AI in 2023/2024?) usually start a bull market
  • Expects markets to pump higher than expected in bull markets, and go lower in bear markets
  • Cycles provide 3-6 months of opportunity to enter (during bear) and exit (during bull)
  • Never enter/exit a position fully in a single day
  • A big indicator for bull markets are 100% pumps of random projects (track the frequency to determine opportunity)
  • There are many opportunities- if one doesn’t look good enough, pass and look further
  • 20% of trades cause 80% of returns (the rest is not worth taking)
  • Better to stay out of the market than being in the market at bad conditions